UN: Bulgaria Faces World’s Bleakest Demographic Prospects by 2050 -

Bulgaria faces the bleakest demographic prospects on a global scale over the next 35 years, according to the 2015 World Population Prospects report of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).

In the period 2015-2050, Bulgaria’s population is expected to shrink by 27.9%.

Bulgaria’s population is to decrease from the current rate of 7,152 million to 5,154 million in 2050 and to 3,406 million in 2100, according to the report.

Romania registers the second-worst performance, with its population expected to shrink by 22.1% from the current rate of 19.511 million to 15,207 million in 2050.

Romania is followed by Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, Croatia, and Hungary in the group of the 10 worst-performing countries.

The best score is that of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which currently has a population of 109 000, with the figure set to remain unchanged in 2050.

As regards age distribution, at present 14,1% of Bulgaria’s population are in the age group 0-14, with 58.9% in the age group 15-59, 26,9% aged 60+, and 4.5% aged 80+.

In 2015, 14.7% of Bulgaria’s population will belong to the 0-14 age group, 48.8% will be in the age group 15-59, 36.4% will be in the age group 60+, and 7.6% will be aged 80+.

In 2100, 15.1% of Bulgaria’s population will belong to the 0-14 age group, 50.9% will belong to the 15-59 age group, 34.0% will be in the 60+ age group, and 11.1% will be aged 80+.

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junenan wrote:

UN: Bulgaria Faces World’s Bleakest Demographic Prospects by 2050 -

Bulgaria faces the bleakest demographic prospects on a global scale over the next 35 years, according to the 2015 World Population Prospects report of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).

In the period 2015-2050, Bulgaria’s population is expected to shrink by 27.9%.

Bulgaria’s population is to decrease from the current rate of 7,152 million to 5,154 million in 2050 and to 3,406 million in 2100, according to the report.

Romania registers the second-worst performance, with its population expected to shrink by 22.1% from the current rate of 19.511 million to 15,207 million in 2050.

Romania is followed by Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia, Croatia, and Hungary in the group of the 10 worst-performing countries.

The best score is that of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, which currently has a population of 109 000, with the figure set to remain unchanged in 2050.

As regards age distribution, at present 14,1% of Bulgaria’s population are in the age group 0-14, with 58.9% in the age group 15-59, 26,9% aged 60+, and 4.5% aged 80+.

In 2015, 14.7% of Bulgaria’s population will belong to the 0-14 age group, 48.8% will be in the age group 15-59, 36.4% will be in the age group 60+, and 7.6% will be aged 80+.

In 2100, 15.1% of Bulgaria’s population will belong to the 0-14 age group, 50.9% will belong to the 15-59 age group, 34.0% will be in the 60+ age group, and 11.1% will be aged 80+.

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If these facts are correct then a lot of the villages will be non-existent. In our village I think I can safely say that I have not see a pram being pushed in the last nine years, so if that is the case where is the next generation coming from

In 2100, 15.1% of Bulgaria’s population will belong to the 0-14 age group, 50.9% will belong to the 15-59 age group, 34.0% will be in the 60+ age group, and 11.1% will be aged 80+.

This is pure guess work but I would suggest that our village would be something like this, 2% belong to 0-14 age group, 30% will belong to 15-50 age group, 58% will be in the 60+age group and 10% will be aged 80+

glad I wont be around for it,,, !!!!!

What are the words to that song..."children are our future, or something like that"...sadly, this country isn't prepared to invest in that sort of future!!

I hesitate to quote figures regarding my village because the reality is quite disturbing...two babies were born to Roma families in the last 12 months, bringing the total of the 0 - 14 group to 2, the 15-59 group has about 250, but the majority are well over 50. The 60+ bunch consists of some 200...the official oldest person in the village had her 101st birthday last Sunday.

I spent many hours with our local mayor to get these figures today.

We are the youngest in our village so everyone else is over 65 I guess over the next 20 years the village will die out completely.

Interesting stuff!
Long-range demographic forecasting is only a bit less unreliable than long-range weather forecasting.
So many factors can influence the actual out-turn, on the upside or the downside.
Economic and political migration are just two of those; as we have seen in recent years, there are plenty of people in and outside the E.U. whose lives are so unsatisfactory that they risk them to travel to the relative safety and wealth of other nations.
How's this for a scenario: better off Syrians allowed into BG to help stave off the population decline in the villages: they buy cheap housing, make a living from the land and / or services, improve the quality of life for the locals, have children...

Birth rate 8.92 births/1,000 population (2014 est.)
Death rate 14.3 deaths/1,000 population (2014 est.)

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The death rate is nearly double what the birth rate is. I can remember when the population was just over 9 million, now I believe it is down to under 7 million

There are severn villager around us and between them there are 2 babies the rest are aged 4 and up. In our village we have 3 children now living here youngest is 2 years. They moved out of Silistra because the children have asma.

Since we have been coming to this village 8 years now 14 people in the village has pass away we have something like 35 people living here now. Many Bulgarians have houses and come out the weekend to tend to their gardens.  It is a real shame these old villages are just crumbling down.

Just had to ask this question Bernie...did you mean villagers or villages are crumbling down?

I think that either way might be correct, but I have a warped sense of humour.

oddball wrote:

 It is a real shame these old villages are just crumbling down.

Oops!! Villages sorted now thanks

Perhaps this link will give us more information as to why the population is decreasing and it's looking as if it will continue
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