[size=75:9n6yj8if]Sofia echo 4 January 2010

Minister: Economic recovery could begin by spring 2010

Bulgaria is expected to show the first signs of recovery from the global economic downturn towards the beginning of spring 2010, according to Bulgarian Finance Minister Simeon Dyankov. Speaking on the Bulgarian National Television (BNT) morning talk show on January 4, he said that the country reached the bottom of the crisis in November – December 2009, but by March 2010 the climate ought to improve.

"
My biggest hope for 2010 is that by spring the country will begin the recovery process. We are faced with three to four more arduous months but I am convinced that we will cope just fine,"
Dyankov told BNT.

He said that Bulgaria wrapped up the 2009 fiscal year "
just the way they wanted it to end, incurring the lowest deficit rate in the entire European Union"
. The focus, however, will be galvanising and stimulating the country's economy, by forwarding payments designated for the construction and agricultural sectors, and through lowering taxes as well as welfare benefits payments.

Dyankov told BNT that 2010 is expected to be particularly harsh but that the tourist sector for instance ought to fare considerably better than it did in 2009. For the construction industry, the 2010-2012 period will remain particularly challenging. He said that the problem is that hotels are currently being built instead of infrastructure, and that construction companies ought to shift their interest from residential construction to "
real infrastructure projects"
.

"
Bulgaria can only benefit from being the most financially stable country in the Balkans"
he said. Although it has a smaller economy that both Greece and Romania, Bulgaria is considerably more stable thus it could become "
a major centre for foreign investment in the region"
.

"
The country has the lowest taxes in the European Union. Unemployment is a fact, until the end of the year, the average nationwide rate is likely to reach 11 per cent. Currently, Europe accounts for 10.5 per cent unemployed on average, which means Bulgaria is coping considerably well"
Dyankov was quoted as saying, alluding to the fact that Bulgaria's unemployment rate in November 2009 was 8.66 per cent.

The new Government will be tasked with "
maintaining current jobs and creating new ones"
as part of its 2010 economic recovery plan.

Let’s all hope this is right I somehow think it's a bit early to be thinking like this, there are much richer countries’ that will take a lot longer but who knows?

I think your right meandmine it is a bit optimistic but maybe thats the Bulgarians way of keeping harmony

Very optimistic if you ask me a lot of the countries round the world who are better place are saying the end of 2010 before the recovery starts [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]

[size=75:mi8pmn1w]Standart 5 January 2010

Bulgaria's Recovery from the Crisis takes Another Year

The worst economic prognoses for 2010 concern the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In particular Bulgaria and Romania are the two countries, which will not get out of the recession by 2011, according to the forecasts of the US leading agency for economic analyses RGE Monitor. The RGE analysts believe that Bulgaria and Romania will not have a positive economic growth before 2011. Bulgaria is likely to experience one of the slowest recoveries. According to the analysts, the Bulgarian economy is one of the most dependent on export and also having the lowest potential to recover via export. The reason is not only the reduced demand from the Western European markets. The currency board and the fixed rates of the lev are huge barriers to the Bulgarian export especially against the background of the dropping currency values in neighbouring countries, RGE Monitor reported.
The prognosis about Bulgaria's economic development in 2010 envisions a further shrink of about 1% up to 2%. In 2010, the domestic consumption will keep low levels because of the deeply affected crediting system and high unemployment rates.
Keeping all this in mind, an increase of bad credits is expected in the months to come. This is a tangible risk, which can destabilize the financial system and result in a delay of the state's economic revival.
The big foreign debt and the risk of a gas crisis similar to the one Bulgaria faced in 2009 are other factors that put Bulgaria's economy in jeopardy.
RGE Monitor doesn't rule out the possibility that Bulgaria may ask the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for support. According to the agency, this will depend on the condition of the Western European economies and the financial markets.

Now that sounds more like it I think it's a bit too optimistic to think that Bulgaria will pull out of the recession this early well all we can do is hope