[size=75:1bhrd1dv]Standart 14 January 2010

Unemployment Will Be Bulgaria's Real Problem

How did you welcome 2010, Mrs. Petkova - was it with hope or with a sinking heart?
Making realistic prognoses of 2010 is very difficult. The reason is that the economic conditions in and outside Bulgaria are not clear yet. When it comes to the situation outside Bulgaria I fear that there will be a secondary crisis that will start from the public finance sector of developed states - it will be the immediate result from the powerful financial injection aiming to rescue banks and businesses , made in 2008-2009.

Which is the greatest threat this year?

From our point of view this will be the high unemployment rate. To greatest regret, the prognoses show an increase according to this criterion. At the end of 2009 the unemployment rate stood at 9%. In 2010 the forecasts indicate rates between 11% and 12%, which is not a negligible figure. The expectations are based on the big difficulties, experienced by the companies at the present moment. I think that the firms, unable to pay their taxes and insurance installment will increase in number. Despite these negative forecasts about the labor market, we expect an increase of the insurance threshold by some 10% in 2010.

How will the macro-economic environment change in 2010?

A lot of forecasts on the macroeconomic indices have been published and they do not run in very different lines. I would like to highlight the distrust on behalf of the consumers who have been unnerved by the economic crisis. This leads to low consumption which obviously hardly has a positive effect on the GDP and the business.

How do you think the inflation will behave?

I expect it will be low ? probably about 3%.
Which sectors of the economy will be the first to stir up this year?
I think that not without troubles but the first to produce achievements will be the tourist sector, the agriculture, the food industry and the traditionally successful pharmaceuticals.