[size=75:17n8o17u]Dnevnik 27 December 2009


2010 - Falling house prices will continue

Budget accommodation offers strong competition and big business in offering properties, activation of investors. Such forecasts are coming in 2010 leading companies in the property market.

Housing

Once dropped by about one-third last year, albeit at a slower pace, housing prices will continue to fall and next year. Such estimates are almost all market participants to which Dnevnik inquired. Moderate decline in the housing segment in 2010, albeit at a lower pace than in the passing year forecast of the Bulgarian office of international firm Colliers. Falling prices and lower volume of transactions waiting for us at least another half year, said Polina Stoykova, operational director of Bulgarian Properties. According to her reconstruction of the market will come first by an increase in the number of transactions, mainly from the quality properties in Sofia and Varna, and only then in terms of growth in property prices. From Colliers' believe that quality projects will keep prices as creditworthy and attract demanding customers. "
To increase the prices of properties we can not talk during the next year, and when that happens, then prices will increase gradually, commensurate with the growth of gross domestic product,"
said Stoykova.

Need to first or new home will be the leader in real estate purchase. Another major factor that will move the market is attractive bank loans with lower interest rates from the current. Payment transactions via bank transfer only is the new factor that will affect the volumes next year. Changes you make a number of specific cases, a response to their settlement will be a sign of maturity and market participants.

Holiday Rentals

2010 may prove to be crucial for the future market of holiday properties in the country, estimated by the "
Green Life"
, one of the leading investment companies in the sector. "
The sales that were made during the past year are nearly 5 times less than in 2008 Statistics of psychological influence intentions to investors and most of them abdicated as new projects are not even speak,"
said Marie Daskalov, Commercial Director of "
Green Life"
.
Russian buyers are leading the market for vacation properties next year. Such are the expectations of investors in the sector. Russians seek maximum reduction of price and quality higher than available to the general market. Customers will continue to blaznyat the luxury to spend more of its preliminary budget, but only in cases in which they are convinced of the conclusion of the best deal. We have such examples and now client, who announced a budget of 30 thousand euro, buy a flat in Bansko to 86 thousand euro, Daskalov said. According to her will be indicative of behavior that will demonstrate to buyers of property exhibitions in February and March. And the weakest signs of optimism may lead to increased activity by investors for which this moment is key, says Daskalov. According to her, one will risk and will bring a new quality product, while others will refuse to invest in this segment.

Offices

The new office projects will be completed and put into operation next year, will increase the supply C 261 thousand sq. m, according to figures of Forton. This implies an increase in the percentage of vacant office space, which at the 3-th quarter of 2009 reached 14.7 percent, and the continuing reduction in the levels of rents in the beginning of the year, said Sergei Koinov, Executive Director of Forton.
The leading motive in the demand for office premises is the desire to optimize future operating costs for rent, and tenants are reluctant to pay the costs of moving and finishing works, said Tanya Koseva-Boshova, executive director of European commercial center. She does not expect prices to continue to fall because the decline has been consumed. "
The process is similar as the exchange of good news - the market reacted to their appearance, then relaxes, images present Koseva picture. According to Vladislav Kayzerov, Manager Office areas "
in"
Forton, for tenants in 2010 is the right time to sign long term leases with which to achieve very favorable average rents for the duration of the contract.
Next year will form a new business location of Sofia Tsarigradsko Shosse. The reason is the release of several major projects, including the "
Printing office center"
, "
European Trade Center"
, "
Megapark. So the capital will be increasingly closer to major cities in Europe, where quality and large office projects are concentrated on the main boulevards. This process will be developed more actively with the construction of new stations, predicted Tanya Koseva.

Moles

Nearly 416 thousand sq. m of new retail space is expected next year across the country, according to figures of Forton. "
Due to the large volume of new centers tenants have exclusive choice, but economic progress is needed in order to benefit from its strong position. The big chains that have already stepped on the Bulgarian market continues its expansion plan, but smaller companies are struggling survival and negotiate a rent rebate levels than the new locations, said Dimitar Kiferov, Manager Commercial areas "
in"
Forton.
Expectations are initiated construction of shopping centers to walk slowly. Change can occur only in the second half of 2010 because of forecasts that Western Europe is to address the crisis. "
This can motivate the world's leading brands, which are not yet present on the Bulgarian market to revise its plans for expansion and to take advantage of these favorable conditions,"
said Kiferov. Its first stores in 2010 will open in Bulgaria Peek and Cloppenburg, Spanish fashion giant Inditex brands with Zara, Bershka, Stradivarius, Pull and Bear, Massimo Dutti, and stores Humanic, Reserved, Sephora, Gap and others.
Average rents in shopping centers will remain close to the time achieved. The difference between Sofia and other towns in the country will remain substantial, because the crisis is reflected primarily on the solvency of the consumers in small towns. It is expected that once the new shopping centers opened in the capital, merchants of low and mid-price segment to focus on smaller towns, where they have the opportunity to do business at very favorable terms, says Kiferov.

INDUSTRIAL AREAS

Several new projects will be completed in the market of industrial areas with a total volume of just over 35 thousand sq. m in 2010, according to figures of Forton. Despite weaker economic activity in this segment of investors are more optimistic about the future and is expected to launch several large-scale project near Sofia, predicted Alexander Tanev, manager of Industrial areas "
in"
Forton. He expects that it will begin an aggressive pre-leasing, which will put pressure on the prices of storage areas and will lead to a serious dislocation in this market segment. Rents for the best projects will not exceed 5 per sqm, the middle will run between 4 - 4.5 per sq m, predicted Tanev. According to him, projects to be established, are capable of much more flexible in price due to significantly reduced construction costs and therefore to over 5000 sqm warehouse which is now agreed and will start building in 2010 . the price will be considerably less than 4 euros.
In the longer term expectations the companies have planned to build its own warehouse or industrial buildings, to shift to employment on the same areas that will stimulate demand. Reasons for this are conservative behavior of banks in terms of lending to projects for construction of buildings, the relatively high interest rates and poorer business results - reduced turnover and profit in a serious pressure on the international market in terms of efficiency and competitiveness. This will generate greater interest in the built-to-suit projects (objects on demand) with a guaranteed lease.
Price of land for construction will continue to decline. The reason is that prices in Bulgaria are two to three times more expensive than in Central and Eastern Europe, said Simeon Mitev, Manager of Chance 96 "
. He gave an example that if the region of Sofia ring road land is sold for 60 euros / sqm, then in Poland, the price is 20 euros / sqm, while in neighboring Bucharest - 25-30 euro / sqm . The most active companies in the segment will remain sellers of food and logistics operators predicted by Colliers.

Investment Market

In the past year there were almost no investment transactions on the business property. The reason was a lack of buyers. The only deal that is done, it was the sale and hire (sale-leanback) office building Eurohold Bulgaria - Avtoyunion "
of Bluehouse. Expect such transactions to become characteristic of the market in 2010 because it is good form to provide monetary resources for the current lack of credit, predicted Tanya Koseva-Boshova. According to her, in Bulgaria there are no more than 2-3 active foreign investors who have the resources and look for quality office and retail complexes, but currently there is no good offering of buildings suitable for investment sales. The situation in 2010 will be changed. Owners of the Printing Office Center "
and"
Megapark 'plan to sell them, then fill them with tenants.

Thanks Ash Very interesting reading, guess we won't be selling our shack in Sliven than, have to wait for better days

Oddy