Sofia echo Thu, Oct 15 2009

A European Commission Environment News Alert seems to confirm the general view that Bulgaria is experiencing progressively higher temperatures.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already reported that the global average annual temperature increased by 0.74°C since 1991. But local studies are equally important. And, as far as Bulgaria is concerned, research indicates an increase in annual mean temperatures in the southwestern region of the country, an area currently characterised by hot, Mediterranean-like summers and cold winters.

Results were reported for two main areas: Bankso (936m) and the mountain area of Musala Peak (2925m).

"
Until the 1990s there was little variation in the average annual temperature (-3.0°C) in the Musala Peak area. However, in the 1990s, the average annual temperature rose to -2.7°C, and has been -2.5°C since 2001. In Bankso the average annual temperature was 8.1°C in the 1970s. In the 1990s the average annual temperature rose to 9.1°C;
and has been 9.6°C since 2001,"
says the report.

Statistics also indicate a general shortening of the winter season accompanied by longer summers and fewer days with temperatures below 0°C. These changes have implications for the stability of this area in terms of soil structure, water retention and the ecosystem as a whole, says the report.

Changes in rain and snowfall (precipitation) were not so obvious. Analysis suggests precipitation fell between 1955 and 1995 for the Bankso region. The annual number of days with snowfall at Musala Park during 1973-2006 has fallen for both summer and autumn. However, the report concedes that measurements of precipitation in high mountain regions can be unreliable and could even have an error rate of 15 per cent for rain and 50 per cent for snow.

However, the report that the changes reported - notably rising temperatures - would have a long-term effect on local ecosystems.

"
Generally it is thought the ecosystem changes in this region (southwestern Bulgaria) could be similar to those occurring in the Alps. These changes may also have socio-economic impacts, for example, less reliable snow in the ski resorts and effects on the water supply. More droughts are expected which could have a future impact on water reservoirs and irrigation in neighbouring Greece,"
says the report.